That statement would not be unusual if it came from Hamilton or Button, and if it were about Sebastian Vettel. Not many have expected Red Bull to be in this kind of position, both on the grid and in a spiritual state. The RB8 was marked as pole favorite all week, but, ultimately, this is the nature of this sport - anything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does.
All those who expected a few surprises in qualifying today have hit the nail on the head. First biggest surprise and an obvious shock to the paddock was Kimi Raikkonen's Q2 dropout. The Finn is not enjoying a great comeback at the moment, after admitting to a driver error on his flying lap, and falling short of starting a new one just before the checkered flag was out. Watching Kimi, you could sense a bit of disorientation, as he was always in traffic, albeit on a similar pace as Grosjean. However, timing is key, and going out late to do a final run to improve on your position is always a gamble, considering there's a full pack of 24 drivers on the grid and there's the risk of getting stuck behind a slower car. His main issue so far seemed to be his laidback attitude, which did not help him get back in the groove. It didn't take long for critics to question his commitment and motivation again.
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| Raikkonen drops out of Q2 |
Another shocking story of the day was the horrendous form of the Ferraris. Quite a few people thought they were bluffing about their performance. Well, today they've done a good job in proving them wrong. Fernando Alonso made a mistake in Q2, braking on the grass, and ending up in the gravel trap. His time set before that was nowhere near enough to allow him a Q3 entry, so the mistake aside, it's safe to say he was still too slow to make it happen. Felipe Massa was again in a terrible form, significantly slower than his team-mate in all sectors. This is not what he is supposed to be doing in a season where he must prove his worth at Ferrari, although it seems to be a rather difficult task to accomplish in such a car.
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| Alonso ends Ferrari's qualifying in the gravel trap |
The third story, which might be harder to digest, is Red Bull's slim chances of getting into pole position. Having dominated qualifying sessions last year, Vettel must have expected more than 6th place, behind his teammate. Ever since the last day in Barcelona testing, doubts began to arise regarding Red Bull's performance. The two drivers were clearly unhappy with how the car was behaving. Downforce was their key element and strongest point last year, and with the FIA having the blown exhausts banned, it was expected of them to slightly struggle. Hopes were strong, though, up until Q3, when most people were expecting Vettel to pull out a stunning lap out of his pocket, as he was usually doing it last year. Fans were left waiting until there was nothing left to be waiting for. The checkered flag was out, and Red Bull were nowhere near the top.
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| The Red Bulls were struggling all weekend |
The fourth story, which is probably the biggest positive surprise today, is Romain Grosjean's third place in qualifying. The Frenchman deserved all the respect for demonstrating that Lotus' pace in testing was genuine. Critics began to label them as "dark horses", and they seemed to have come close to that title. Although almost 4 tenths off the pole, Grosjean will be looking for a solid podium finish and maybe even challenging for a win if he can keep up with the McLaren's.
Speaking of which, Hamilton and Button were miles away from anybody. It doesn't come as much of a surprise that they were in contention for pole position. It comes as a surprise that they were dominating Q3. Hamilton set a blistering time in the initial phase of the third session, 0.7s ahead of anybody. Jenson Button soon joined him, with a minor gap of not even a tenth of a second. McLaren were not bluffing when they mentioned earlier this week that they were masking their performance all along.
Mercedes should be slightly disappointed. After showing early promise in Q1 and Q2, Rosberg and Schumacher ultimately fell short of challenging for pole position. Both drivers, however, were on a scrub set of soft tyres, which probably also hindered their performance. Rosberg made a mistake during his flying lap, probably due to the excitement, which left him only in 7th place, while Schumacher had a solid run, which landed him in the best qualifying position since his return. Do not write Mercedes off just yet.
Analyse it as much as you want, McLaren were out of reach today for anybody. Make no mistake, though. The race is always the deciding factor. There are two DRS zones, which could make it easier for drivers to overtake, and with tyre degradation still a mystery, the tables can turn very easily. By this time tomorrow, someone will be celebrating with a lot of champagne on top of that podium. Given the level of competitiveness this weekend, it's impossible to tell who.
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